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2013年11月21日星期四

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On the choice facing Republicans in Florida…and nationally.louis vuitton shoes replica And here’s David Frum on the same phenomenon in New York.
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We are clearly at a very weird phase of this process, as David Kurtz explains here.fake ugg boots I’m not going to pretend I’ve got anything that resembles clarity, but I’m being told by a normally trustworthy source that at last night’s White House meeting, the President referred to the triggered public option as one of the ideas on the table that he is willing to consider. Which is sort of what he has been saying about it all along. UPDATE: Jonathan Cohn’s take on the scrambled state of play. UPDATE2: And this bit of clarity from the House: A source there confirms that Nancy Pelosi does not yet have the votes for the so-called robust public option (one whose reimbursement rates are tied directly to Medicare rates).replica louis vuitton The alternative, weaker version would have the new program negotiating rates with providers, which means it would operate more like a private insurance company. The House Democratic Caucus did something very unusual in their private meeting this morning; they took a roll call, and asked each member there to state where they stood on the public option. However, a large number of members were absent, so it is unclear how short they are of the votes they need. Also, at her news conference this morning, Pelosi said for the first time that she would have no objection to an idea being kicked around in the Senate, one in which states would have the ability to opt-out of the public option.fake chanel shoes UPDATE3: What Ezra Klein is hearing. My head hurts.
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Associated Press is reporting that Iran hasn’t accepted–nor has it rejected–the plan negotiated in Vienna to have its uranium enriched for medical use in France or Russia.louis vuitton shoes replica The Iranians instead propose that they be allowed to purchase the enriched uranium. There are two ways to look at this reaction: as a haggle or a stall. The Iranians, who will argue with decreasing credibility that they remain within the nuclear non-proliferation guidelines, may be negotiating for a better deal. That would fit the regional bazari way of doing business.louis vuitton backpack for sale Or, as neoconservatives will no doubt assert, they are buying time to enrich enough uranium in order to present the world with a nuclear fait accompli. It seems to me that the next step is quiet diplomacy, especially by the Russians and the French. The Iranians have to be made to understand that this deal–which their own negotiators brought home–is a threshold agreement: if they can’t buy into to this very tentative step, there won’t be any hope for more comprehensive talks. Stiffer sanctions will be likely, when the deadline rolls around in December.chanel outlet I suspect that the appropriate attitude by the Obama Administration should be chilly, measured disappointment. No screeching, but a clear message that we are prepared to move toward a policy of enhanced sanctions, containment and deterrence if the Iranians don’t stop playing games. Update: Now the Iranians are saying they haven’t decided and will make a statement next week. The more we see of this government, especially since the June elections, the more you have to wonder who, if anyone, is in charge.louis vuitton neverfull
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2013年11月20日星期三

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Public Policy Polling’s latest shows a tightening race in Michigan, Romney within four.chanel handbags for sale “If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” says an anonymous Republican Senator. GOP pessimism takes over. Santorum risks being defined by sticky social issues. To wit: questioning Obama’s “theology,” opposition to pre-natal testing, prosecuting abortion doctors, and nostalgia for single-room schools.ugg boots outlet Santorum’s dog anecdote is funnier than Romney’s. Young Mitt at BYU. Arizona congressional candidate and Romney state co-chair Sheriff Paul Babeu comes out, denies he threatened to deport his Mexican boyfriend. Maryland’s on the brink of gay marriage as New Jersey’s governor vetoes it, which is sure to come up in the O’Malley-Christie presidential debates of 2016.handbags louis vuitton And The Onion reports on conservation efforts in the nation’s capital.
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On Sunday, the New York Times explained the basics of Mitt Romney’s opposition to the Obama Administration’s bailout of General Motors and Chrysler and what Romney would have done differently (plus the White House’s retort that Romney’s alternative ???finding an infusion of private capital ???was unrealistic).gucci handbag for sale What the Times story didn’t offer was a clear sense of how damaging this position might be to Romney’s prospects in Michigan, where the automakers’ comeback has been an economic godsend. But a poll released Sunday gives us an answer: Romney’s bailout stance isn’t hurting him. 34% of voters say they’re more likely to vote for someone opposed to the bailout, while only 27% consider that opposition a negative. 35% say it doesn’t make a difference to them either way.fake louis vuitton I’d also wager that the 27% of Republicans who consider opposing the bailout to be a negative are probably relative moderates ???it’s the hardcore Tea Partyers who loathe government interventions ???and therefore are likely to support Romney anyway. (MORE:?The Michigan GOP Primary: Where All Politics Is National) Of course, given that Rick Santorum also opposed the automaker bailout, this probably wasn’t going to be a decisive issue. But Romney’s opposition was somewhat more visible, and bluntly stated (i.e.louis vuitton replica, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”). Santorum has also made the reasonable argument that he opposed the Detroit bailout on principle, whereas Romney supported the bank bailout ???and thus that “he supported his friends on Wall Street but did not support the auto industry.” This is all interesting, but perhaps significant around the margins. That same poll’s evidence that Romney is already closing the gap against Santorum in Michigan affirms my belief that Romney’s carpet-bombing TV ad campaign will prove too much for the former Pennsylvania Senator to withstand.louis vuitton outlet online
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Rick Santorum’s victories on Feb.fake chanel shoes 7 kicked off a month-long trial period, which will be capped by Super Tuesday on March 6, to convince Republican voters that he is not only the best conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, but also a viable general-election candidate. Midway through Santorum’s moment, it’s tough to tell if he’s thriving or blowing it.? Ignore for a moment the polls, which have been a lagging indicator throughout the volatile nominating fight. To position himself as a credible threat to Barack Obama, Santorum had use the spotlight afforded by his three-state sweep on two weeks ago to demonstrate the breadth of his appeal.replica gucci shoes “He??s been so visible on social issues that sometimes it overshadows the fiscal conservative record that he has,” Santorum strategist John Brabender told me last week.?Santorum likes to describe himself as a “full-spectrum conservative,” and aides suggested now was the time for Santorum to showcase his fluency on issues beyond gay marriage and abortion. He would spend time talking about his plan to spark the Rust Belt’s industrial engines by eliminating taxes on manufacturing; his hawkish foreign policy, an area where Romney has little experience; and the perils of nominating a governor who backed TARP and crafted the antecedent to Obama’s health-care overhaul. (MORE: The Saga of Rick Santorum’s Second Surge) Most importantly, he would stack his carefully cultivated everyman persona against Romney’s executive mien.louis vuitton backpack for sale “We need someone who understands, who comes from the coal fields, who comes from the steel mills, who understands what average working people in America need to be able to provide for themselves and their families,” Santorum said Monday in eastern Ohio. Never mind that Santorum is a trained lawyer who spent 16 years in Congress before become a high-flying consultant, and has never worked a day in either blue-collar idyll. The truth of the statement was less important than the empathy it was meant to convey. But instead of selling this story, Santorum has spent several critical days trying to put out fires of his own making.fake louis vuitton shoes Over the Presidents Day weekend alone, he questioned Obama’s “phony theology,” suggested that standard prenatal testing is a mechanism to “encourage abortions,” and appeared to liken Obama to Hitler by comparing complacency over the President’s agenda to the pre-World War II period when the U.S. dallied during the rise of “this guy over in Europe.” (LIST: A Brief History of (What You Think Is) Presidents’ Day) Santorum, whose home-schools his children, also referred to public schools–which he blasted in his 2005 book for their “weird socialization” — as “factories.replica louis vuitton” On Monday, his new campaign spokesman had to apologize after assailing Obama’s “radical Islamic policies.” The Daily Beast?used the spate of controversial comments to compile a list of the “Top 10 Outrageous Things Rick Santorum has said,” declaring that “there are politicians who make gaffes, and then there is Rick Santorum.” Santorum spent plenty of time over the weekend explaining away or defending his remarks. He denied impugning the President’s faith, claiming that he was referring to Obama’s “radical environmentalism” and saying, “I accept the fact that the President is a Christian.louis vuitton outlet online” He doubled down on his criticism of prenatal testing. And he soft-pedaled his opposition to the government’s role in public education, casting it as a preference for local control of schools, a position which comports with conservative ideology. Though none of these episodes is likely to inflict immediate damage, they won’t help him dispel the perception that his strict social conservatism makes him a risky general-election candidate. And each second of oxygen they consume is a squandered opportunity to batter Romney or enumerate his own merits.fake ugg boots (MORE: Rick Santorum’s Roll) But while Democrats will use such comments to buttress the argument that Santorum’s views are extreme, they won’t hurt him in a Republican primary where voters have prized purity and passion over all else. Though he’s made electability central to his message, Romney doesn’t seem inclined to attack Santorum from the center. John Sununu, one of Romney’s top surrogates, even hammered Santorum on Friday for backing “liberal social causes.” So far, Santorum’s surge shows little sign of abating; his crowds have been big and buoyant, and while the contest in Michigan appears to be tightening, polls show Santorum opening leads in Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas.fake uggs Which raises the possibility that Santorum’s controversial comments weren’t “gaffes” at all. In the eyes of his acolytes, he burnishes his standing every time he soldiers through a game of gotcha journalism with the liberal media. Any aspersions cast on Obama’s religion — entirely coincidental, mind you! — may also serve to remind voters of Romney’s Mormonism. To be sure, Santorum’s high favorability numbers — 67% of respondents in Michigan say they have a positive view of the former Senator, compared to 23% who don’t — are a function of the fact that he’s taken little sustained fire from opponents so far.cheap gucci belts But they also reflect the perception that he is a politician who says what he believes. In a turbulent primary season, Republican voters have placed as much importance, if not more, on candidates’ biography and authenticity as on policy. If it stays that way, Santorum’s moment may well extend beyond the next two weeks. But come November, he would face the challenge of swaying voters with a different set of priorities.cheap gucci belts
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I recently made a private vow not to use the term Israel Firster again, for two reasons: it’s derogatory (and it was, initially, my vituperative response to being called “anti-Israel” by assorted neoconservative blowhards) and it’s inaccurate ?? most of those who are, I believe, unduly aggressive about Israel’s national security think that the national security of Israel and the U.louis vuitton neverfullS. are identical. But how does one describe Sheldon Adelson, who says????tongue slightly in cheek, it seems ???that he could spend $100 million to support Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign ???and who also is known to have only one public-policy issue on his agenda: Israel or, perhaps more accurately, a Likudnik view of Israel’s national security priorities? Adelson compares himself to George Soros, who has spent a fortune supporting a variety of liberal causes and candidates. Fair enough, except that Adelson has only one cause and, in this presidential campaign, one candidate.louis vuitton belts His obsession is his right and, after the Supreme Court’s disastrous Citizens United decision, his privilege. But it is unseemly and potentially disastrous for the U.S. (and also, I believe, Israel).handbags louis vuitton The effects of Adelson’s money can be seen in Newt Gingrich’s?warmongering, as reported today in the New York Times: And?Newt Gingrich?said at a stop in California recently that he supported Israel??s right to undertake ??an operation designed to dramatically slow down or disrupt the Iranian nuclear system.?? I suspect that a lot of Israel’s recent saber rattling has been part of an orchestrated attempt to increase the pressure on Iran to open the books on its nuclear program ???and to the minimal extent that Gingrich’s (and Rick Santorum’s) statements add to that pressure, there is some value to them. But I also suspect that Adelson really thinks Israel ???or, better still, the U.S.louis vuitton replica ???should attack Iran, and there is no value in that, especially since many experts believe that the economic sanctions and global opprobrium orchestrated by the Obama Administration may well cause the Supreme Leader to blink soon. The neoconservative desire to bomb Iran is obnoxious and ill conceived but not unusual in American politics; witless pre-emptive aggression ???as opposed to the justified military response to al-Qaeda’s terrorism ???has proved generally disastrous since Vietnam. There are hints of a deeper unseemliness here, though. The notion that Obama is anti-Israel, which has been hinted at by all of the Republican presidential candidates except Ron Paul, plays into a subterranean campaign by some in the Jewish community to portray the President as soft on radical Islam (and, in its most shameless form, a secret Muslim radical himself).louis vuitton replica There is a whiff of soft birtherism here ???not that Obama was born elsewhere, but that his worldview isn’t quite American. There is a certain irony in that. In the past, various ethnic lobbies ???the free Chinese, the Irish, various Eastern Europeans ???have pushed for U.S.chanel outlet military support of their causes and in some cases, like the arming of Taiwan, have succeeded. American Jews who support our eminently moral but geostrategically inconvenient military alliance with Israel, as I do, are acting no differently. But there is a line between arming the free Chinese for their own self-defense and attacking Beijing pre-emptively to make the world safe for Taiwan. This is a line that we’ve never crossed before.louis vuitton speedy I would suggest that those who want to cross that line now, in the Middle East, don’t have America’s best interests at heart and probably not Israel’s, either.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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Orlando, Florida By the time fans began filing into his Election Night soiree in a capacious Orlando ballroom, there were signs Newt Gingrich had yielded to the grim reality awaiting him.chanel outlet Television screens, speeches and placards distributed to supporters broadcast the campaign’s new mantra: 46 STATES TO GO. “It’s not over,” the local Republican Party chairman assured the crowd. When Fox News projected Romney the winner at precisely 8 p.m.fake louis vuitton shoes, spectators at the Gingrich watch party just went on talking, as if nothing had happened. Not that there were many of them. The ballroom was nearly empty save for the cameramen and scribes on hand to rubberneck the crash. It turned out to be uglier than expected.fake uggs Gingrich was bracing for a loss, even as he kept up a jam-packed schedule that had him hopscotching around central Florida for photo ops and handshakes Tuesday while Mitt Romney relaxed. Gingrich had his spin at the ready: “It’s clear that conservatives are going to get more votes tonight than Romney,” the Speaker said Tuesday morning during a stop at his campaign headquarters in Lakeland. Not so. With 95% of precincts reporting, Romney’s 47% topped the tally of Gingrich (32%) and Rick Santorum (13%) combined.gucci outlet online (Under Gingrich’s scenario, Ron Paul is classified as a libertarian whose devout supporters are unwinnable.) (MORE:?After Turbulent January, GOP Race Enters the Doldrums) And yet, if the blowout loss marks the beginning of the end for the Gingrich campaign, the end may be a long, drawn-out chapter. In an audacious bit of spin, Gingrich told the crowd that Florida did him a favor. “It is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the conservative leader Newt Gingrich and the Massachusetts moderate,” Gingrich said.gucci outlet online He didn’t say Romney’s name. Bruised and battered, Gingrich vowed that he won’t cave to pressure to step aside so the GOP can close ranks around Romney. “We did this in part for the elite media,” he said of the “46 states” signs. “I just want to reassure them tonight: we are going to contest every place and we are going to win and we will be in Tampa as the nominee in August.louis vuitton shoes replica” (MORE: The Versatile Newt Gingrich) It’s hard to see how this could happen. According to exit poll data, Gingrich lost nearly across the board in Florida. Romney won men and women, Caucasians and Hispanics, wealthy voters and those who make under $50,000, electability (with a whopping 75% to Gingrich’s 8%), self-identified Christians and those say they are satisfied with the current crop of GOP candidates. Gingrich thrived only with the activist base: evangelicals, “very conservative” voters, those who identified abortion as their top issue.louis vuitton handbags for sale It will be hard for Gingrich to improve his favorables across the board while he wallows in the muck with Romney for the next six months. Florida was a nightmare for Gingrich. He arrived on a wave of momentum and was then out-organized, out-raised and out-thought. Romney’s camp, betting that the vaunted Gingrich ego could not stand being stung by a man he considers his inferior, baited Gingrich into spending a good deal of the week talking up lunar colonies and carping about Romney’s dishonesty.cheap gucci belts By the end of the week, he was greeting passionate but dwindling crowds with sermons so incendiary they would have made Glenn Beck blush. (MORE:?Outstumped and Outspent, Newt Gingrich Flounders in Florida) Romney’s win comes with collateral damage. He has bought himself a tenacious enemy. Throughout the week, Gingrich scoffed at reporters who asked about his path after Florida, promising to battle all the way to the convention, tackling each state one-by-one.fake louis vuitton shoes Gingrich won’t have the money to match Romney in a protracted air war. The debates that fed his campaign are drying up. To engage Romney “Our ability to tell the truth outpaces Romney’s ability to lie,” says Gingrich spokesman R.C.fake louis vuitton Hammond. As Gingrich himself puts it: “We??re going to have people power defeat money power in the next six months.” But it will be a challenge for Gingrich to survive through February. The coming month’s primary calendar is Romney’s wheelhouse: a series of caucus states, where Romney’s superior organization and fatter wallet give him a distinct advantage, and just one televised debate.ugg boots outlet Gingrich’s campaign announced Tuesday that it had raised $5 million in January and netting $10 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Hammond declined to say how much cash the campaign has on hand, but said Gingrich would spend time campaigning in each contest, including states like Nevada and Michigan, where demographics and personal roots heighten Romney’s advantage. Unlike Florida, the coming contests award delegates proportionally. Which leaves Gingrich standing at a crossroads in the twilight of a long, accomplished, checkered career.cheap gucci belts To compete with Romney, Gingrich will have to feast on earned media, particularly if casino magnate Sheldon Adelson decides Gingrich’s Sunshine State drubbing is cause to stop throwing good money after bad. As Gingrich knows well, the best way to get the press to pay attention is to go nuclear, and the only open path forward is to recast himself, implausibly, as a Tea Party insurgent. For a politician who some suspected entered the presidential race to burnish his image, this carries great personal risk. 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SU eht fo tnemele na ydaerla si ereht ,suhT .louis vuitton replicatuo tfel neeb evah ohw ,lacitilop dna leber htob ,sredael laitneulfni dna tnatropmi yrev fo rebmun a fo kniht ydaerla nac I?;0228#& .raW fo ydutS eht rof etutitsnI?eht ta tsylana na ,ygaB??O htebazilE?syas ;1228#&,tnemevom tsetorp cinagro eht dna noitazinagro siht neewteb tcennocsid a eb ylbativeni lliw ereht dna ;2128#& noitatneserper edisni desoppus htiw neve ;2128#& ecrof noitisoppo delixe ylegral a eb ot gniog llits sti ,gniteem eht fo emoctuo eht revetahW;0228#& .dnuorg eht no spuorg lacitilop fo egnar redaorb a edulcni ot hguone raf og t;7128#&nseod osla ,droF treboR elixe-ni-rodassabmA .S.chanel handbags for saleU yb dehsup ,ytitne wen ehT .slicnuoC yranoituloveR fo krowten dekcab hcnerF dna iduaS eht troppus ot desufer evah raf os osla yehT .sgnillik cinhte egnever ni desu eb dluow spuorg innuS ot nevig smra ?? snairyS fo %11 ylno gnitneserper puorg a ,etiwalA si dassA elihw innuS %07 si airyS ?? sinnuS fo sercassam ydoolb s??dassA nevig taht nrecnoc osla si erehT .spuorg tsirorret fo sdnah eht ni pu dedne sehcac s??ifaddaG dna smra esoht fo ynam ,ifaddaG rammauM?fo llaf eht retfA .lv for saleaybiL ni deneppah tahw nevig noitisoppo eht ot smra edivorp ot yreel neeb sah .S.U ehT ??.kcits snalp ruo ekam pleh ot meht htiw egarevel dna ecneulfni deen eW?? .loui vuittonsyas relbaT ??,oga emit gnol a demra denrut noitulover eht esuaceb tnatropmi si sihT?? .spuorg demra htiw gnigagne ton llits si .S.U eht taht si ,syas relbaT ,melborp eno tuB ??.chanel outletdael ton tub elor a syalp CNS .slicnuoc yranoitulover dna lacol htiw yltcerid gnikrow era ew won dna ,edisni ;2128#& sCCL ;2128#& ?tayiqisnaT ot gniklat neeb ev;7128#&eW?? .yciloP tsaE raeN rof etutitsnI notgnihsaW eht ta trepxe airyS a ,relbaT werdnA syas ??,dassA nwod gnikat ylevitca seno eht era yeht ;1128#& noitisoppo lanretni eht srovaf ti esuaceb evom doog a s;7128#&tI?? ?.gnidliuber sti ecnanif yllautneve lliw ohw ,edistuo esoht dna raw livic eht gnigaw airyS edisni esoht neewteb msahc gniworg eht stcelfer egnahc ehT .chanel handbags for saleerutinruf nworht dna sthgiftsif dedulcni remmus eht revo oriaC ni gniteem A .saihS dna sdruK ,ezurD ,sinnuS ,snaitsirhC ,setiwalA :stces cinhte s??airyS tsgnoma seitiroirp gnireffid sserdda ot dna ,erutraped laitnetop sih retfa emiger s??dassA fo stnanmer eht htiw krow ot eerga ot CNS eht ecrof ot delggurts .S.U eht ,taht ni nevE .fake louis vuittonspuorg noitisoppo lanretxe rehto dna CNS eht gniyfinu no desucof dah keew siht litnu pu hcihw ,airyS ni ycilop .S.U ni tfihs rojam a si evom ehT ??.taht no desucof yrev era stroffe ruo oS .louis vuitton replicadraeh eb ot sdeen taht eciov etamitigel a evah ohw srehto dna airyS edisni morf elpoep edulcni tsum noitisoppo taht tub ,noitisoppo regral a fo trap eb nac yehT .noitisoppo eht fo redael elbisiv eht sa deweiv eb regnol on nac CNS eht taht raelc ti edam ev??eW?? .dias ehs ??,erutcurts pihsredael yna ni dedulcni eb dluohs eveileb ew taht snoitazinagro dna seman dednemmocer evah eW?? ?.keew txen ylrae ,rataQ ,ahoD ni demrof eb lliw licnuoc tahT .loui vuittonairyS fo tuo dna edisni htob morf ??eettimmoC s??elpoeP?? wen eht ylbissop dna ,colB lanoitaN s??ilayiK ,puorG citoirtaP nairyS s??halaM ,CNS eht ot noitidda ni edulcni lliw dna srebmem 05 ot 53 tuoba evah lliw hcihw ,licnuoc wen eht fo driht a ot pu tneserper llits lliw CNS eht dias ehS .sredael etairtapxe sa llew sa ,dassA rahsaB tnediserP fo emiger eht nwod gnirb ot airyS nihtiw gnikrow spuorg owt morf nward srebmem htiw noitisoppo wen a rehtegot elbboc ot gnikool eb dluow .S.U eht dias notnilC ??.handbags louis vuittonsnairyS lla gnitcetorp dna gnitneserper ot detacided si taht erutcurts pihsredael noitisoppo na eb ot sdeen ereht dnA .modeerf rieht niatbo ot yadot gniyd dna gnithgif senil tnorf eht no era ohw esoht fo noitatneserper a eb ot sah erehT?? .aitaorC ot pirt a no sretroper dlot notnilC ??,sraey 04 ro 03 ,02 rof airyS edisni neeb ton secnatsni ynam ni evah tub setubirtta doog ynam evah ohw elpoep yb detneserper noitisoppo na eb tonnac sihT?? .elixe ni snairyS yltsom fo pu edam licnuoC lanoitaN nairyS desab-siraP eht rewopme ot gniyrt fo sraey owt ylraen retfa airyS ni secnaigella gnitfihs eb dluow .loui vuittonS.
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